Technical Paper 1:
Obesity in Australia: a need for urgent action
2.3 - Trends and scale of the problem
Based on current trends there is an urgent and immediate need to address the growing prevalence of obesity and overweight in Australia. The most recent projections from Access Economics, assuming a constant increase in obesity prevalence over the next 20 years in line with current trends, estimate that there will be 6.9 million obese Australians by 2025 (Fig. 3). Even more conservative estimates, which assume no further change in age-gender prevalence rates, such that all further increases are due to demographic ageing alone, indicate that 4.6 million Australians (18.3% of the population) will be obese by 2025.[13]
Figure 3: Population obesity prevalence projections, Australia, 2008-2028 (assuming current trends continue)
Source: Access Economics 2008[13]
Predictions of health loss (loss of healthy life) to the year 2023 conducted for the Burden of Disease study indicate the largest projected increases will be for neurological disorders and diabetes, with a lesser increase for musculoskeletal disease. In comparison, for conditions such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, injuries and chronic respiratory conditions, rates of health loss are expected to decline.[10] Significantly, the projected increase in rates of loss of healthy life associated with diabetes is due mainly to expected increases in body mass.
Diabetes prevalence is projected to increase two- to threefold over the next 25 years, due to expected increases in the prevalence of obesity, along with demographic changes. Diabetes is also expected to cause the largest growth in disability in the elderly.[12]
A modelled case study prepared for the United Nations estimated that Australia’s total health expenditure will increase in real terms by 127% over the period 2002 to 2032, and that health expenditure would increase as a percentage of GDP from 9.4% to 10.8%.[12] A study in the US found that, as for Australia, if trends continue, disability rates will increase across all age groups, offsetting past reductions in disability[23] – it was estimated that if this continued in the US, one-fifth of US healthcare expenditure would be needed for treating the consequences of obesity by 2020.[24]
Recent conservative estimates based on Australian data indicate that life expectancy at age 20 is about one year less among overweight Australian adults compared with Australians within the healthy weight range, while life expectancy is reduced by an average of around four years for obese Australian adults. For Australian children, it has been estimated that if current obesity trends continue, the life expectancy for children alive now will fall two years by the time they are 20 years old. This would represent a loss of five to 10 years in life expectancy gains and a return to life expectancy values seen in 2001 for males and in 1997 for females. These estimates, particularly those for children’s life expectancy, are likely to be conservative and are particularly compelling given that life expectancy is otherwise increasing for healthy Australians.[25]
Recent analyses estimated the current and future prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children and adults based on measured height and weight data from national and state population surveys.[26] The results predict a continued rise in BMI for both males and females and across the age span. Based on past trends, and assuming no effective interventions are in place, 16.9 million Australians will be overweight or obese by 2025.
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