Australia: the healthiest country by 2020
National Preventative Health Strategy – the roadmap for action
Targets
If the comprehensive approach outlined in this strategy is implemented, modelling[23] suggests that we can achieve a reduction in the prevalence of daily smoking among adult Australians (aged 18+) from 17.4% in 2007[24] to 10% or lower by 2020.2
The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) has agreed to a National Partnership Agreement on Preventive Health.[25] This agreement sets an overall target for daily smoking of no more than 10% over the 10 years from 2009, as well as interim targets. Interim targets specify that prevalence of daily smoking among Australian adults aged 18 years plus should decline to 15.4% or lower by 2011, and 14.1% or lower by 2013. In real terms, this equates to a decline of at least 11.5% in adult daily smoking in each state and territory in the four years from 2007 to 2011, and at least a 20% decline in smoking in the six years to 2013.3
Meeting these targets at both national and state levels will require a continuation of recent declines[5] in the percentage of young Australians who take up smoking each year, as well as a substantial and sustained increase in the proportion of adult smokers who are seriously trying to quit smoking.
It will also require significant declines in smoking among less educated smokers and those living in disadvantaged areas, which are at least as large as declines among more educated smokers living in more affluent areas.
‘Closing the Gap’ in health status between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians[26] will not be possible while Indigenous people smoke at a higher rate than other Australians.
If prevalence were to halve over the next 10 years, around one in four Indigenous people would still be smoking in 2020. Realistic phased targets can be set for Indigenous smoking after the preliminary impact of the recommended strategies.
A further target for tobacco control in Australia is to eliminate exposure to other people’s tobacco smoke, so that by 2020 Australians, especially children, are not being exposed to second-hand smoke in their day-to-day lives and smoking during pregnancy is minimal.
2 And no more than 9% for Australians aged 14 and over, as indicated in reports of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey in 2019.
3 The National Partnership Agreement on Preventive Health sets out the agreement of the states, territories and the Australian Government to meet numerous benchmarks including ‘(jj) reduction in state baseline for proportion of adults smoking daily commensurate with a two percentage point reduction in smoking from 2007 national baseline by 2011; 3.5 percentage point reduction from 2007 national baseline by 2013’, Part 4 Clause 15.